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Dec 23, 2017
12/17
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jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated the fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: the president signs the tax bill and the treasury curve steepens. risk assets outperform a 2017. junk bonds get left behind. in europe, we end the year just the way we started it, worrying about politics. we begin with the big issue, the yield curve beginning to steepen. >> the reality is this curve showed stephen because of less foreign competition for treasuries. when you add in the $700 billion next year, we think that the recipe for a steeper curve. >> is it likely the curve ends steeper than it is currently? highly unlikely unless the fed puts the rate hikes on ice or starts to ease. very unlikely scenario. >> very much likely contining to flatten. in that environment we paint strong growth. inflation maybe ticks up a little bit. the yield curve continues to flatten. critically, it does not invert. >> i'm worried about it, too. i think we need to watch it. the 10-year treasury, high 230's is meaningful. the history of inversions is su
jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated the fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: the president signs the tax bill and the treasury curve steepens. risk assets outperform a 2017. junk bonds get left behind. in europe, we end the year just the way we started it, worrying about politics. we begin with the big issue, the yield curve beginning to steepen. >> the reality is this curve showed stephen because of less foreign...
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May 20, 2018
05/18
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jonathan: really? luke: a bit like that, but it feels to me it should be 200 to compensate, not 160. jonathan: do think it might be conditioned by an old trading regime to some extent? is risk domination a factor or is it about an increase of btp supplies? luke: it depends on how far brussels comes toward italy. if they don't come anywhere towards italy to help the bank with their fiscal spending plans, which are massive, no problem at all. if they come too far and give a little bit to italy, spain will look over and say ok, why are we going to everything we are going through when italy is getting it from brussels? then, you will have more risk in europe. jonathan: that is your answer, why would the europeans do it? why would they let that happen? why give one inch to italy to allow spain to follow this and get out of control? joe: the europe response will be measured. ultimately, we are not convinced that much will happen as opposed to what is being talked about. jonathan: would you buy btp's where th
jonathan: really? luke: a bit like that, but it feels to me it should be 200 to compensate, not 160. jonathan: do think it might be conditioned by an old trading regime to some extent? is risk domination a factor or is it about an increase of btp supplies? luke: it depends on how far brussels comes toward italy. if they don't come anywhere towards italy to help the bank with their fiscal spending plans, which are massive, no problem at all. if they come too far and give a little bit to italy,...
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Dec 16, 2018
12/18
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jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, fueling global growth fears. the eurozone. trouble in paradise. leverage loan funds suffering the biggest outflows on record and the fed 2019 plans in the balance ahead of next week's decision. we begin with the big issue. what does the fed do when 2019 looks increasingly uncertain? >> pause. >> pause. >> the fed is going to pause. >> one hike being priced in. >> pricing in one hike. >> there is a debate going on. >> two more. >> two more next year. >> whether this is one more hike or three more hikes. >> i would be pausing until we had a sequence of inflation numbers above 2% at the minimum. >> we have a situation where the fed has reversed course and they have obviously raised rates. it doesn't get as much airtime, but the $50 billion a month in the balance sheet is important to markets. >> neutral is not 2.5%. one person at the fed believes neutral is 2.5%. so we are not just below neutral, we are just below the bott
jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, fueling global growth fears. the eurozone. trouble in paradise. leverage loan funds suffering the biggest outflows on record and the fed 2019 plans in the balance ahead of next week's decision. we begin with the big issue. what does the fed do when 2019 looks increasingly uncertain? >> pause. >> pause. >> the fed is going to...
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May 31, 2015
05/15
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jonathan: pretty amazing. i think of my father and what he went through to afford us this opportunity to be partners in the giants. betty: in 1991, bob tisch, john's father, fulfilled a lifelong dream when he bought a 50% stake in the giants for a reported $80 million. today, the team is valued at an estimate of $1.3 billion. it is co-owned by the tisch and mara families. if loews corporation was a football team, what is your position? jonathan: probably the coach. i'm not there day-to-day. very much true in the hotel business. i can sit in my office on madison avenue, but i'm not checking people into the rooms or making the beds. in that regard, i guess i would be the coach. understanding what is in your game plan, the playbook, and then you have to articulate it, and then you have to perform it. it ain't easy. in the hotel business, it's 365 days a year, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and you have to get it right every time. betty: i know your family is a big football family. but why do you like football
jonathan: pretty amazing. i think of my father and what he went through to afford us this opportunity to be partners in the giants. betty: in 1991, bob tisch, john's father, fulfilled a lifelong dream when he bought a 50% stake in the giants for a reported $80 million. today, the team is valued at an estimate of $1.3 billion. it is co-owned by the tisch and mara families. if loews corporation was a football team, what is your position? jonathan: probably the coach. i'm not there day-to-day....
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Jul 14, 2019
07/19
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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, chairman powell heading towards july 31 teeing up rate cuts. as the data from the u.s. looks resilient and europe showing signs of life, fueling a bit of a backup in core government bond markets. let's begin with the big issue. are there cracks appearing in the everything rally? >> we have really seen a strong rally. >> rally. >> rally. >> the entire market rally so far has been discounting what the central banks are doing. >> the fed that is reacting to a downshift in the sentiment. >> the one thing that has not rallied in this everything rally are long dated bond prices. >> investors have been positioning for continued divergence in that correlation. >> yields are much higher than they were 48 hours ago. >> we have had some better data recently. >> inflation data did see a reversal of some of the weakness. >> the fed has gotten dovish. >> it is not just the fed. >> the ecb remains on this dovish stance. >> it's a pretty positive en
jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, chairman powell heading towards july 31 teeing up rate cuts. as the data from the u.s. looks resilient and europe showing signs of life, fueling a bit of a backup in core government bond markets. let's begin with the big issue. are there cracks appearing in the everything rally? >> we have really seen a strong rally. >> rally. >> rally....
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Oct 22, 2017
10/17
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jonathan: mike, way in. mike: credit spreads are getting to the point where they are not only fully valued but potentially overvalued. i'm looking at spreads it gets a lot of corporate sectors and the be 250 over. jonathan: mike, way in. mike: credit spreads are getting -- and they are basically at historical tights now. in the last couple of weeks and days we have seen a snap tighter in spreads with the optimism on tax reform. we are pushing back against it. we are fading the credit rally. jonathan: marilyn, is this is a sign of complacency or is the risk mentality here to stay? marilyn: we see the risk on mentality here for the time being. when you look at global growth, it is still on a very robust stance. when you look at global monetary policy and central banks, they are at an inflection points where they will reduce monetary policy. when you look at the investors, where they are putting their money and trying to get yields, the markets and credit are two sectors -- we do feel they have some value. we a
jonathan: mike, way in. mike: credit spreads are getting to the point where they are not only fully valued but potentially overvalued. i'm looking at spreads it gets a lot of corporate sectors and the be 250 over. jonathan: mike, way in. mike: credit spreads are getting -- and they are basically at historical tights now. in the last couple of weeks and days we have seen a snap tighter in spreads with the optimism on tax reform. we are pushing back against it. we are fading the credit rally....
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Nov 30, 2018
11/18
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jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: raising the bar ahead of the g20. the u.s. looking for successful talks with china. the growth outlook stumbles. repricing the rate outlook, leaving the fed looking to reclaim optionality. we begin with the big issue, the g2 in argentina. >> everything is at stake. >> hopefully we get some not bad news. >> nobody wins. in the long-term we all lose out. >> we are all, in europe, worrying on this battle between china and the united states which has to stop after a certain moment. >> the whole trade issue has now become mixed up with strategic issues. >> trump wants to appear chart on china -- tough on china. the fact is this is actually starting to impact sentiment. >> if there was a trade deal with china, it would be better than what we currently have. i think the markets would be very excited. >> if that doesn't happen this weekend, the two sides are digging in for a trade war that run for the rest of this administration at least. jonathan
jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: raising the bar ahead of the g20. the u.s. looking for successful talks with china. the growth outlook stumbles. repricing the rate outlook, leaving the fed looking to reclaim optionality. we begin with the big issue, the g2 in argentina. >> everything is at stake. >> hopefully we get some not bad news. >> nobody wins. in the...
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Jun 2, 2019
06/19
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jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, fresh trade tension providing even more fuel for the global bond market rally. 10-year treasury yields breaking down to new lows for the year. bund yields printing a new record. uncertainty leaving high-yield credit exposed. spreads widen, funds suffer. another week of outflows. we begin with a big issue, more fuel for the treasury market rally. >> the bond market rally right now is a risk off trade. >> massive flight to safety. >> the flight to risk-free assets and into bonds. >> rushing into treasuries. >> the perfect storm in the treasury market. >> people are very nervous. >> people are coming around to the various factors and uncertainties. >> the combination of the safe haven demand of treasury plus the idea that growth is slowing. >> declining global growth. >> lackluster growth. >> trade tensions. >> rhetoric with china is not only back but escalating. >> new tariffs on mexico. >> mexico. >> the mexico exculpati
jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, fresh trade tension providing even more fuel for the global bond market rally. 10-year treasury yields breaking down to new lows for the year. bund yields printing a new record. uncertainty leaving high-yield credit exposed. spreads widen, funds suffer. another week of outflows. we begin with a big issue, more fuel for the treasury market rally. >> the bond market...
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Jan 21, 2018
01/18
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jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ coming up, investor shakeup, the d.c. drama, and the potential for a government shutdown. the treasury selloff continues. 10-year yields break post-election highs. and signaling the end of qe. we begin with the big issue, the slow-motion treasury selloff. david: it could be a bond bear market. i think it is more of a teddy bear market than a grizzly bear market. gina: we don't need to worry about the 10-years getting too expensive until 3.5%, quite frankly. we've seen 3% in the past few years. our work suggests the sort of positive effect on the financial sector of the 10-year moving higher right now overwhelms the potential negative effect of the valuation compression as rates rise. jonathan m: we have been talking about this rate rotation for years. people are going to go out of bonds into equities. it is pretty high right now. bond returns, we are only three weeks into the year but they are not very good. maybe you start to see a
jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ coming up, investor shakeup, the d.c. drama, and the potential for a government shutdown. the treasury selloff continues. 10-year yields break post-election highs. and signaling the end of qe. we begin with the big issue, the slow-motion treasury selloff. david: it could be a bond bear market. i think it is more of a teddy bear...
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Apr 28, 2019
04/19
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jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, u.s. gdp delivering a big upside to price, topping all forecasts. a headline flattered by an inventory boost fueling doubts the growth burst will be sustainable, providing another lift for treasuries. soft inflation keeps rate cut bets alive. we begin with a big issue. the united states looking like the best house on the block. >> strong growth. >> great economy. >> you can't dismiss it. >> great gdp, great low inflation. >> better fundamentals. >> if you look at the underlying economy. >> the underlying economy is doing well. >> the u.s. is not doing poorly. >> the u.s. is doing relatively well. >> it looks reasonably stable. >> the u.s. is simply in a better place. >> the economy had continued to grow. >> yes, gdp was higher, but the devil is in the details. >> you have to strip out the noise. >> sift through all of the noise of trade and inventories. >> if it is inventories and trade, that is not indicative of the un
jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, u.s. gdp delivering a big upside to price, topping all forecasts. a headline flattered by an inventory boost fueling doubts the growth burst will be sustainable, providing another lift for treasuries. soft inflation keeps rate cut bets alive. we begin with a big issue. the united states looking like the best house on the block. >> strong...
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Mar 17, 2019
03/19
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♪ jonathan: from new york city and our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg real yield starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, risk assets mounting up higher, despite few signs of economic recovery worldwide. very little in the economic data, testing the fed's patience ahead of next week's meeting. and investors bullish europe. a contrarian trade finding even more friends. we begin with the big issues. there are signs the global economy is bottoming. >> goldilocks. >> goldilocks. >> i would almost call this a goldilocks moment. >> low inflation rate. >> low volatility. >> low volatility. >> every central-bank involved in supporting the global economy. >> dovish ecb. >> dovish. >> dovish fed. >> the fed does not need to tighten. >> the fed will be very passive and on the sidelines. >> i would say it's time for investors to be more relaxed. >> there are reasons to be optimistic. jonathan: joining me, the fixed income head, a senior portfolio manager from blackrock, and from minneapolis great bishop from u.s. fixed income strategies at rbc wealth ma
♪ jonathan: from new york city and our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg real yield starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, risk assets mounting up higher, despite few signs of economic recovery worldwide. very little in the economic data, testing the fed's patience ahead of next week's meeting. and investors bullish europe. a contrarian trade finding even more friends. we begin with the big issues. there are signs the global economy is bottoming. >> goldilocks....
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Jul 21, 2019
07/19
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jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, confusion reigns following the final fed tweak before this month's rate decision. central bank officials emphasizing the need to get ahead of economic weakness with president draghi stepping up. -- stepping up first. looking ahead to the ecb next week. let's begin with the big issue. a polarizing treasury market call. >> all the way down to zero. >> i think that would be pretty extreme. >> we are actually at 2%. 2.5% by year-end. 2.5% and maybe more. 1.5% for the 10 year. >> someone saying we will see tremendous re-inflation over the next 10 years, buy gold. and on the other side, and have someone saying, 10-year yields are going to zero. >> i don't want to think of a world of zero interest rates. >> that is where we are heading over the next couple years. >> 0% for the u.s. treasury seems like an excessively pessimistic forecast. >> we have had the recovery, it's coming to an end. >> if you believe that the business cycle is coming
jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, confusion reigns following the final fed tweak before this month's rate decision. central bank officials emphasizing the need to get ahead of economic weakness with president draghi stepping up. -- stepping up first. looking ahead to the ecb next week. let's begin with the big issue. a polarizing treasury market call. >> all the way down to zero....
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Mar 18, 2018
03/18
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jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg real yield. coming up on the program, goldilocks growth. the status doesn't quite fit the optimism. the beginning of the end for the good times in credit. and looking ahead to chairman powell's first news conference, penciling in another rate hike. we begin with the big issue, is goldilocks just a fairytale? >> we are able to see these big increases in the labor force and jobs growth without seeing a big push up in wages. at some point that ends, and when that starts to end, i think we will see a reaction in the bond market. >> inflation has got an enormous amount of inertia built in on the downside and on the upside, and it will move slowly on the upside. >> the fed is going to have to pick up the baton and say we are responsible for leaning against the economy so we don't get an inflation spiral going. and i think that is going to create complications, especially as the market has to start repricing for more and more rate increases. >> a little inflation is not so bad, but it is a pretty slippe
jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg real yield. coming up on the program, goldilocks growth. the status doesn't quite fit the optimism. the beginning of the end for the good times in credit. and looking ahead to chairman powell's first news conference, penciling in another rate hike. we begin with the big issue, is goldilocks just a fairytale? >> we are able to see these big increases in the labor force and jobs growth without seeing a big push up in...
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Nov 10, 2019
11/19
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jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, global risk appetite remains at the mercy of the next trade headline. treasuries heading for a big weekly loss. bond yields climbed to a three-month high. as credit rallies, investors waiting for the fourth biggest corporate issue on record. we begin with a big issue. the global bond market shakeout. >> it feels that in the bond market yields could go higher. >> close to 2% right now. >> certainly you can go beyond 2% likely by year-end. >> if it keeps pushing higher, then you'll start to get a capitulation which will bring us another leg higher in yields. >> we have seen some capitulation. >> you will continue to see pressure on yields. >> lower bond yields from here the market would not like. >> if this reverses, it reflects significant deterioration in macro. >> the market has come around to the view that maybe we are not going into recession but slower growth environment. >> a substantial amount of institutional inv
jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, global risk appetite remains at the mercy of the next trade headline. treasuries heading for a big weekly loss. bond yields climbed to a three-month high. as credit rallies, investors waiting for the fourth biggest corporate issue on record. we begin with a big issue. the global bond market shakeout. >> it feels that in the bond market yields could go higher....
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Oct 26, 2019
10/19
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jonathan: from new york city, for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg real yield starts right now. coming up, investors shaking up weak data, hoping to resolve lingering macro issues, as broader credit remains, more cracks are showing in leverage loans. looking for clues beyond the next rate cut. we begin with the big issue. debating whether we have seen the worst of it. >> the u.s. is in a good spot. >> manufacturing is weak globally. >> are we going to see something as bad as 2015 in terms of a global industrial recession? probably not. >> numbers are going to be weak through the balance of the year. >> you are starting to see some signs of bottoming out. >> if we continue to see pmi's decline maybe there is some , downside there. >> the data will continue to decelerate into the third quarter. >> maybe we get some positive news out of brexit. maybe that leads to a short-term pop in yields. >> there is no way this thing is magically over. >> we should see growth improving by the fourth quarter of next year. >> this could be the bottom, so it
jonathan: from new york city, for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg real yield starts right now. coming up, investors shaking up weak data, hoping to resolve lingering macro issues, as broader credit remains, more cracks are showing in leverage loans. looking for clues beyond the next rate cut. we begin with the big issue. debating whether we have seen the worst of it. >> the u.s. is in a good spot. >> manufacturing is weak globally. >> are we going to see...
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Oct 5, 2021
10/21
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jonathan: get it done. from new york, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. i don't know what i'm talking about. tom: neither do i. [laughter] ♪ ♪ >> the market seems to be buying into the fed's inflation dismissal. >> it is clear inflation is going to remain elevated and that will be an issue. >> i don't think interest rates are the cause of the uncertainty or risk in the equity market. >> for the economy it is important but for the market it is about earnings. >> there is plenty of demand across the board. that issue is can that demand be fulfilled? announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. on radio and
jonathan: get it done. from new york, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. i don't know what i'm talking about. tom: neither do i. [laughter] ♪ ♪ >> the market seems to be buying into the fed's inflation dismissal. >> it is clear inflation is going to remain elevated and that will be an issue. >> i don't think interest rates are the cause of the uncertainty or risk in the equity market. >> for the economy it is important but for the market it is about...
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1.0
Apr 29, 2022
04/22
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jonathan: kathy jones? kathy: wider. jonathan: matt hornbach? matt: tighter. jonathan: tighter? interesting. final question. 2-10s, call it 19. steeper or flatter by year-end? kathy? kathy: flatter. jonathan: bob. bob: deeper. jonathan: matt. matt: flatter. jonathan: to the three of you, thank you, matt hornbach, kathy jones. that does it from us. we will see you next week. this was bloomberg real yield. this is bloomberg tv. ♪ xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more groceries! this phone? fewer concert tickets. this phone? more concert tickets. and not just for my shows. switch to xfinity mobile for half the price of verizon. new and existing customers get amazing value with our everyday pricing. switch today. mark: welcome to the bnn and bloomberg audiences. i am mark crumpton. in moscow, they have slashed interest rates. germany has signaled it would not oppose an embargo on russian oil. last night, russian missiles killed journalis
jonathan: kathy jones? kathy: wider. jonathan: matt hornbach? matt: tighter. jonathan: tighter? interesting. final question. 2-10s, call it 19. steeper or flatter by year-end? kathy? kathy: flatter. jonathan: bob. bob: deeper. jonathan: matt. matt: flatter. jonathan: to the three of you, thank you, matt hornbach, kathy jones. that does it from us. we will see you next week. this was bloomberg real yield. this is bloomberg tv. ♪ xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but...
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Sep 17, 2017
09/17
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jonathan: george? george: perfect time for them to transition to their balance sheet, which is exactly what they are doing. we expect them to move up their dialogue around that. they have wanted to talk about this for a while. essentially if they do it right, , it could steepen the yield curve a little bit which is , exactly maybe what they want to do. jonathan: matt, i want to get away from the conversation where price sets narrative. yes, treasuries have not done much in anticipation of this balance sheet move. can we really believe unwinding a $4.5 trillion balance sheet is not going to create ripples in the treasury market? matt: yes, that is fair. we are underweight mortgages. we definitely think that mortgages -- could pull back from a a little bit here. from a treasury standpoint, we think 2.20 is not the right number. you go to 2.50, 2.60, we think that is possible. we are just not in the camp you go three-plus percent on the 10-year, we don't see that happening. jonathan: we will wrap up the p
jonathan: george? george: perfect time for them to transition to their balance sheet, which is exactly what they are doing. we expect them to move up their dialogue around that. they have wanted to talk about this for a while. essentially if they do it right, , it could steepen the yield curve a little bit which is , exactly maybe what they want to do. jonathan: matt, i want to get away from the conversation where price sets narrative. yes, treasuries have not done much in anticipation of this...
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5.0
Nov 17, 2021
11/21
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lisa: [laughter] jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. coming up shortly from the bloomberg new economy forum, we will catch up with the prime minister of singapore. from new york city on radio and tv for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ and there you have it. woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. big deal. we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet. but mine has 5g included. relaaax people. my wireless is crushing it! that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one-upping itself. switch to xfinity mobile and get $200 back when you bring your own phone. or get a samsung galaxy a42 on us. call, click or visit a store today. this is elodia. she's a recording artist. 1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so mi
lisa: [laughter] jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. coming up shortly from the bloomberg new economy forum, we will catch up with the prime minister of singapore. from new york city on radio and tv for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ and there you have it. woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. big deal. we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet. but mine has 5g included. relaaax people. my wireless is crushing...
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10.0
Jul 21, 2023
07/23
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eye 10
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jonathan: why? why is that such -- much more movements -- why is that much more nuanced and complicated? >> on the russian side, $10 per barrel per year makes around $20 billion in revenue. it is a $20 billion incentive to circumvent the oil price cap. if we are not doing the same on our side, there are difficulties. if we think about the cap we still have provisions on the g7 shipping and insurance services to russia. their limitations are very small. i can say i have seen the contract and it is below the cap. imagine if we are filing taxes the same way? tom: bouncing off your work at citigroup and russia, you have an clets -- you have encyclopedic knowledge. what would be the difference for the allies and the white house to make more strident and forceful on vladimir putin? >> if we wanted to be really ambitious, we would go for a round style escrow account where everything has to go through one account. it would still have challenges but would remove complications. that would be easier. failing t
jonathan: why? why is that such -- much more movements -- why is that much more nuanced and complicated? >> on the russian side, $10 per barrel per year makes around $20 billion in revenue. it is a $20 billion incentive to circumvent the oil price cap. if we are not doing the same on our side, there are difficulties. if we think about the cap we still have provisions on the g7 shipping and insurance services to russia. their limitations are very small. i can say i have seen the contract...
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Mar 3, 2019
03/19
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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield" starts now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, very little in the u.s. economic data to test fed chair jay powell's newly found patience. looking at china and focusing on the silver lining. junk bonds off to the best year since 2001, the lowest weighted to debt. we begin with a big issue, space in the global economic turnaround. >> the consensus is the u.s. is about to slow and slow and it doesn't. >> we are at a bottoming phase. a lot of it is in the rearview mirror. >> we gone through a process in the equity market up pricing in material weakness. >> a reversal and sentiment of the dark days of december. >> which is maybe why the market ignore the negative data. >> the market is confirming we are getting good macro data. >> we can get the chinese wheel spinning. >> china will stabilize. >> you're seeing shreds of this in some of the data we just got. >> the little drip, drip, of positive data is telling a story that it is not getting significantly worse. jonathan: joini
jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield" starts now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, very little in the u.s. economic data to test fed chair jay powell's newly found patience. looking at china and focusing on the silver lining. junk bonds off to the best year since 2001, the lowest weighted to debt. we begin with a big issue, space in the global economic turnaround. >> the consensus is the u.s. is about to slow and slow and it...
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May 3, 2021
05/21
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jonathan g: yes and no. we actually think that boring old economists -- look, i've been a gross guy for a long time, and every stock has its moment in the sun. i don't know if this is the moment in the sun for tech. i thick this is the time for old economy stocks because these are companies with big fixed overhead, that tend to respond to the kind of stimulus we are seeing proposed by the biden adminstration and the general overview we are seeing in the economy. lisa: can we get to 4600 on the s&p without a commensurate rise in yields, without a readthrough to the bond market? how much is there a feedback loop air? -- loop here? jonathan g: first of all, my expectation is that we see interest rates rise a little bit from here. if you look at how stocks respond, they want higher interest rates because what we are seeing right now with the 10 year bond yield at 1.6% and fed funds at zero, it is a sign the economy is not yet on stable footing. so the market once to see the demand for capital as signs that thing
jonathan g: yes and no. we actually think that boring old economists -- look, i've been a gross guy for a long time, and every stock has its moment in the sun. i don't know if this is the moment in the sun for tech. i thick this is the time for old economy stocks because these are companies with big fixed overhead, that tend to respond to the kind of stimulus we are seeing proposed by the biden adminstration and the general overview we are seeing in the economy. lisa: can we get to 4600 on the...
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Jan 20, 2023
01/23
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jonathan: thank you. i imagine the story is not going away anytime soon. tom: it is there. it is a little bit off our radar of what we do at "bloomberg surveillance" but can we learn what the documents are without giving away the secrets? that would help, i think. jonathan: no idea. i just wonder how this keeps happening. tom: i asked did it happen before but nobody noticed it? president pharaoh in 1953 can hide had a classified document by the telephone. jonathan: i was not born here so that cannot happen. it could happen for you though. tom: zachary taylor, i think, how to classified document. [office sounds] ♪upbeat music♪ ♪♪ ♪when the day that lies ahead of me♪ ♪♪ ♪seems impossible to face♪ ♪a lovely day (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day) (lovely day)♪ ♪(lovely day)♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. it's official, america. a bank that knows your business grows your business. xfinity mobile is the fastest mobile service. and gives you unmatched savings
jonathan: thank you. i imagine the story is not going away anytime soon. tom: it is there. it is a little bit off our radar of what we do at "bloomberg surveillance" but can we learn what the documents are without giving away the secrets? that would help, i think. jonathan: no idea. i just wonder how this keeps happening. tom: i asked did it happen before but nobody noticed it? president pharaoh in 1953 can hide had a classified document by the telephone. jonathan: i was not born here...
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Jul 28, 2021
07/21
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jonathan: good morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. advancing two, three points, up by 0.6%. euro-dollar just slightly negative. tom: interesting data. look for special coverage this afternoon. out of edinboro, the prestigious residency at the university of chicago in emergency medicine, -- the world tour of difficult diseases. welcome. what comes after the delta variant? virology 101 keeps telling me these things keep changing. is the delta variant a pathway what is coming down the road? >> it is likely the virus will continue to mutate. it will be more transmissible. tom: how do we approach that? from a medical basis, we are working on vaccines, what do you want from our politicians? >> within the chaos we have right now, decreasing the amount of circulating virus. that is a public health challenge. it can be overcome by vaccinating individuals. that is what we need from our politicians, we need to promote vaccines, decrease the amount of circulating virus. so future variants are slower to evolve. lisa: one certainty will be vaccinat
jonathan: good morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. advancing two, three points, up by 0.6%. euro-dollar just slightly negative. tom: interesting data. look for special coverage this afternoon. out of edinboro, the prestigious residency at the university of chicago in emergency medicine, -- the world tour of difficult diseases. welcome. what comes after the delta variant? virology 101 keeps telling me these things keep changing. is the delta variant a pathway...
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Apr 3, 2015
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jonathan: structural. because of super bowl, we knew that we had an end date we do not want to go beyond. we had to scramble. betty: you have spent $100 million. it was the most you have ever spent on any renovation. why so much? jonathan: we felt $100 million was necessary to bring the regency back to a place that befits the neighborhood, but also the vision that we have for this hotel. the $100 million mark not only includes the rooms and the corridors and the restaurant and the new fitness center and the salon and the new lobby, but we replaced every window. he windows were 50 years old. guests will appreciate that. we're looking to raise rates 20% to 25%. that is not a small amount, but we think the products and service will warrant that rate increase. we totally took this area and made the area guest friendly. costs the renovation from an - ballooned initial estimate of $35 million to the $100 million. but tisch says it is all part of his plan to boost the image of ll 21 of his loews hotels. how long
jonathan: structural. because of super bowl, we knew that we had an end date we do not want to go beyond. we had to scramble. betty: you have spent $100 million. it was the most you have ever spent on any renovation. why so much? jonathan: we felt $100 million was necessary to bring the regency back to a place that befits the neighborhood, but also the vision that we have for this hotel. the $100 million mark not only includes the rooms and the corridors and the restaurant and the new fitness...
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Mar 1, 2020
03/20
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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield" starts right now. coming up, coronavirus fears sending markets into a tailspin. central bankers showing little willingness to step in as corporate issuance drives up -- treasury yields hit record lows. we begin with the big issue. no signs central banks are ready to step in. >> what is the fed going to do? >> the fed is divided. >> they really want to take a wait and see approach. >> the fed is behind the curve. >> coming into the year, they thought they would be comfortably on hold. i think that is still what they want. the market is doing what is it always does. the market is testing the fed's resolve. >> markets like to see the central banks step in. >> the case is strong for them to step in. >> they want the fed to cut. >> i don't the fed will cut. >> they should be cutting. >> i don't think the fed should cut. >> monetary policy is prepared to act, but will it be effective? >> the effectiveness would be tremendous. >> interest rates are not vaccines. >> we
jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield" starts right now. coming up, coronavirus fears sending markets into a tailspin. central bankers showing little willingness to step in as corporate issuance drives up -- treasury yields hit record lows. we begin with the big issue. no signs central banks are ready to step in. >> what is the fed going to do? >> the fed is divided. >> they really want to take a wait and...
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Dec 17, 2017
12/17
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♪ jonathan: from j.p. morgan's asset management trading floor, i'm jonathan ferro. with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income, this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: goldilocks dominating 2018 again. central banks say yes, predicting high-growth and low inflation. tax negotiators hours away from a congressional compromise. uneasy calm hangs over treasuries. is this the year credit fails to match a massive rally in equity? we begin with the big issue, high-growth and low inflation in 2018. janet yellen: real gdp growth is a little stronger. the unemployment rate is a bit lower, and inflation is essentially unchanged. mario draghi: the strong cyclical momentum in the significant reduction of economics gives grounds for greater confidence that inflation will converge towards our inflation aim. yellen: i want to see it move up to 2%. most of my colleagues and i do believe it is being held down by transitory factors, but there is work undone there. draghi: an ample degree of monetary stimulus therefore remains necessary for underlying inflation pressures to continu
♪ jonathan: from j.p. morgan's asset management trading floor, i'm jonathan ferro. with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income, this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: goldilocks dominating 2018 again. central banks say yes, predicting high-growth and low inflation. tax negotiators hours away from a congressional compromise. uneasy calm hangs over treasuries. is this the year credit fails to match a massive rally in equity? we begin with the big issue, high-growth and low...
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Jun 23, 2019
06/19
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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, global central banks gearing up to deliver more stimulus, taking the poll of negative yielding assets through $13 trillion and driving high-yield credit spreads to the lows of 2019. so let's begin with the big issue. who wants to fight the fed? >> it is certainly not something you want to fight in the short-term. >> don't fight the fed. >> the market really likes the fact the fed is saying they are dovish. >> in the near term, i think we are going to see vix collapse a little bit. if the fed ends up cutting, it will probably be somewhat supported. >> we now know the fed has our back. >> fed rate cuts probably stimulate animal spirits in the economy. >> it is going to weaken the dollar, which will help multinational companies. we get a bit of an all clear signal here that it will be fine. >> they want to sustain the expansion. >> are we going to get gangbusters returns? no. but where you going to put the money? >> the fed feels it is
jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, global central banks gearing up to deliver more stimulus, taking the poll of negative yielding assets through $13 trillion and driving high-yield credit spreads to the lows of 2019. so let's begin with the big issue. who wants to fight the fed? >> it is certainly not something you want to fight in the short-term. >> don't fight the fed. >>...
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Jan 4, 2020
01/20
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jonathan: from new york for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan farro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, looking for the fed to remain on the sidelines in 2020, even if u.s. manufacturing data is the weakest levels in a decade, and s&p takes the most bearish stance on credit since 2009. we begin with the big issue, how hot is the bar to bring the fed back to the table. >> the fed is on hold. >> on hold. >> the fed goes to the sidelines. >> markets are ok with that. >> the threshold is extremely high. >> impossibly high. >> they will not clear that any time soon. >> the fed may get old back in. >> they may get pulled back. >> conditions have to worsen. >> if something dramatic happens. >> or inflation has to majorly overshoot their level. >> they don't want to be the reason the markets fall off but they don't want to be the reason they go up. >> the economy is going up. >> as long as the economy is ok. >> they do nothing in an election year. >> they will probably try to stay out of the spotlight. jonathan: joining me around
jonathan: from new york for our viewers worldwide, i'm jonathan farro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, looking for the fed to remain on the sidelines in 2020, even if u.s. manufacturing data is the weakest levels in a decade, and s&p takes the most bearish stance on credit since 2009. we begin with the big issue, how hot is the bar to bring the fed back to the table. >> the fed is on hold. >> on hold. >> the fed goes to the...
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Feb 3, 2018
02/18
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jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income, this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, the job report. wages have climbed the most since 2009 and has helped sink treasury and 30 year bonds break 3%. after showing signs of resiliency through the week, credit begins to crack. we begin with the big issue, the solid u.s. jobs report. >> this is a solid report. >> we think it is quite solid. >> we think it is a overall positive backdrop for the economy that is about to get more tailwind from the tax policy. >> it suggests the job market is going to heal and i would be surprised if the bond market did not take this into account. >> the unemployment rate is 4%. in the last 70 years, we have never seen unemployment rate at 4% when the deficit spending is set to increase from 4% deficit to 5%, so this is an economy running hot right now. >> wages are gradually beginning to pick up and there is evidence we are closing in on full employment and this is the start of a more pronounced acceleration in wages. >> i
jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income, this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, the job report. wages have climbed the most since 2009 and has helped sink treasury and 30 year bonds break 3%. after showing signs of resiliency through the week, credit begins to crack. we begin with the big issue, the solid u.s. jobs report. >> this is a solid report. >> we think it is quite solid....
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Jun 9, 2018
06/18
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jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am a jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, breakdown on international diplomacy. enough it to -- enough to derail global growth? central bank governor in a world of pain asking the fed to help. ecb refusing to be held hostage and planning to discuss the end of qe. we begin with a big issue, emerging markets asking the fed for help. >> the fed is always clear they are making policy for america. even if you do consider the rest of the world, you are not making policy to bail out countries that are running their countries badly. >> the fed is guided mostly by u.s. factors and it would take a massive global crisis to change the fed behavior. >> when people make the comparison to 2013 and say the yen is in a better place, but we are missing the point there say the e.m. is better place, but we are missing the point there other vulnerabilities, not just external anything but in places like brazil, public debt is a huge issue. >> the emerging markets appears to
jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am a jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, breakdown on international diplomacy. enough it to -- enough to derail global growth? central bank governor in a world of pain asking the fed to help. ecb refusing to be held hostage and planning to discuss the end of qe. we begin with a big issue, emerging markets asking the fed for help. >> the fed is...
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Apr 29, 2017
04/17
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jonathan: i will ask jonathan byner instead. jonathan: can i say, you are doing a fantastic job. [laughter] jonathan: thank you, sir. jonathan: they will have to push this through because everyone is skeptical. they are skeptical about fiscal policy, the economy, inflation, but the fed is not. i think they will have to keep pushing and they will raise rates. they are going to keep moving rates higher. jonathan: harry, every time yields go back up, form to start taking a closer look in treasuries. talk about the japanese flows and have a story has evolved? >> last year, they had a double miami. they made losses on their hedges, excuse me, they made money on their hedges. of course, after trump won, yields went up. and then the again -- and then the yen moved a lot. they may have been double whammy on their portfolio. it shows there 23 weekly net flows. they are still playing up their portfolio. jonathan: what is happening over the next couple of months? >> after they finished putting up their portfolios, they will come back into form bonds. europe is attractive as well. credit rat
jonathan: i will ask jonathan byner instead. jonathan: can i say, you are doing a fantastic job. [laughter] jonathan: thank you, sir. jonathan: they will have to push this through because everyone is skeptical. they are skeptical about fiscal policy, the economy, inflation, but the fed is not. i think they will have to keep pushing and they will raise rates. they are going to keep moving rates higher. jonathan: harry, every time yields go back up, form to start taking a closer look in...
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May 26, 2019
05/19
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jonathan: really? kathy: i think it is a bit stretched at the moment, a lot of the negative news is built in, but it would not surprise me if we get down closer to 2%. jonathan: when you compare say japan, germany, and the united states, looking at real yields, you get a different picture of what is happening here. because the united states is there with this nice, chunky positive real yield, compared to japan, compared to germany. when you look at the chart, you wonder where this is heading. can we take out that positive real yield in the united states? mike? michael: absolutely. the real yield in the u.s. will go to zero. jonathan: wow. michael: the real neutral fund rate we think is ultimately going to go to zero. that is where it belongs, does not belong at positive half or positive three quarters. right now at almost 60 basis points, where the real 10-year is today, we actually just started getting long that, thinking it will come down. the rally we have had the last few weeks has been driven by l
jonathan: really? kathy: i think it is a bit stretched at the moment, a lot of the negative news is built in, but it would not surprise me if we get down closer to 2%. jonathan: when you compare say japan, germany, and the united states, looking at real yields, you get a different picture of what is happening here. because the united states is there with this nice, chunky positive real yield, compared to japan, compared to germany. when you look at the chart, you wonder where this is heading....
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Mar 1, 2021
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jonathan: jonathan golub joining us now of credit suisse. you have said that this market can do well when yields are higher. can't put too fine a point on that. your thoughts on this, sir. jonathan g: first of all, you have to look at the full cost of capital. if you look at how yield spreads since the pfizer announcement, they are down more than treasury yields are up. that is the big story. the cost to borrowing over the last four months continues to actually improve even the treasury yields are higher, and that is the story. tom: i want to go back to the heart of your distant of call with equity optimism. you believe tech will still participate. you have heard countless people say sell the big tech. it is yesterday's story. give us the distinction. jonathan g: we are neutral weight on tech because we do think -- first, we think the opening is going to be much bigger than people think. our call is really around corporate profit. you want companies that jump the most in an improving economy, and tech does ok, but it doesn't do well as banks
jonathan: jonathan golub joining us now of credit suisse. you have said that this market can do well when yields are higher. can't put too fine a point on that. your thoughts on this, sir. jonathan g: first of all, you have to look at the full cost of capital. if you look at how yield spreads since the pfizer announcement, they are down more than treasury yields are up. that is the big story. the cost to borrowing over the last four months continues to actually improve even the treasury yields...
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Jul 25, 2023
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jonathan: zeet? tom: it's a curtis tan word, a southern turkey word. -- curtis tan - kurdistan word. jonathan: we wanted to be successful and we want him to succeed but anyone is part of the platform wants to see it do better but you still have these golden moments. the basketball player was joking about how he would take the offer from saudi arabia. those are the kind of moments you only get on twitter. tom: and also for breaking news. we use it to confirm speculation in real news. it's been a tool for us. what's the update on futbol? jonathan: massive offers are coming from saudi arabia. i'm sure the club is engaging in those talks from what report say but i haven't heard the player is anywhere. tom: does he control the debate? does he control his destiny? jonathan: he's got a year left on his contract. they don't want to lose him for free next year because he would be able to leave in a free trade. they want to get some money for him but does he want to go to saudi arabia? i don't think so. i thin
jonathan: zeet? tom: it's a curtis tan word, a southern turkey word. -- curtis tan - kurdistan word. jonathan: we wanted to be successful and we want him to succeed but anyone is part of the platform wants to see it do better but you still have these golden moments. the basketball player was joking about how he would take the offer from saudi arabia. those are the kind of moments you only get on twitter. tom: and also for breaking news. we use it to confirm speculation in real news. it's been a...
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Oct 29, 2017
10/17
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jonathan: why? joern: i think the market has priced in the probability between powell, yellen, and taylor. and because taylor has been much more hawkish, the market has already run ahead a little bit. in this respect, the fact that powell is now getting closer to being appointed means for me we see some continuous continuation and in this respect, i think the plots would be continued to be right in the middle or even a little below. jonathan: kathleen, my point, i guess, is they will continue delivering rate hikes. if you look at the median year, the year-end for them next year, it is 2.12%. that is the policy rate. that is only 30, 40 basis points below where the 10-year is. either we get this flat yield curve or something is not going to happen that we expect to happen. kathleen: we will definitely move towards flattening. i think what the market is saying is, we really believe in lower for longer. we prefer powell over taylor. that is the market being entrenched and complacent that things will st
jonathan: why? joern: i think the market has priced in the probability between powell, yellen, and taylor. and because taylor has been much more hawkish, the market has already run ahead a little bit. in this respect, the fact that powell is now getting closer to being appointed means for me we see some continuous continuation and in this respect, i think the plots would be continued to be right in the middle or even a little below. jonathan: kathleen, my point, i guess, is they will continue...
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Jul 8, 2018
07/18
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jonathan: krishna. krishna: no. jonathan: iain. iain: no. jonathan: have we seen the lowest unemployment curve of the cycle? ira: no. jonathan: krishna. krishna: no. jonathan: iain. iain: no. jonathan: that was an easy one. can the fed hike five more times without the ecb hiking once? yes or no? ira jersey? ira: no. jonathan: krishna memani? krishna: absolutely not. jonathan: iain stealey. iain: i think they can. jonathan: raising some big questions about guidance. great to catch up with you. ira jersey, krishna memani from oppenheimer funds, iain stealey joining us from jpmorgan asset management. from new york city for audiences worldwide, that does it for us. we will see you next friday at 1:00 p.m. new york time, 6:00 in london. from new york for our audience across the planet, this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪
jonathan: krishna. krishna: no. jonathan: iain. iain: no. jonathan: have we seen the lowest unemployment curve of the cycle? ira: no. jonathan: krishna. krishna: no. jonathan: iain. iain: no. jonathan: that was an easy one. can the fed hike five more times without the ecb hiking once? yes or no? ira jersey? ira: no. jonathan: krishna memani? krishna: absolutely not. jonathan: iain stealey. iain: i think they can. jonathan: raising some big questions about guidance. great to catch up with you....
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Mar 24, 2019
03/19
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this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: i am jonathan ferro. i want to go to the auction block where we begin in the united states where demand continues to govern debt. the treasury selling $11 billion in 10 year inflation protected notes. emerging markets doubled down, leading brazil to its first global bond sale under bolsonaro. 4.7% lower than the initial target and five-year credit, glaxosmithkline joining the recent wave of high-grade corporate bond issuers to issue new debts. this price across three trenches, three, five and 10 year notes. still with me around the table is matt egan, jose rasco and luke hickmore. what we have seen is the german 10-year yield drop below zero for the first time since 2016. off the back of that, the negative yielding assets, approaching $10 trillion. how significant is that? luke: it is incredibly significant. what we have seen in terms of the reaction is people start hunting for alternative assets. we are starting to see that already today although we have weak equity markets. some of the riskier bits of c
this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: i am jonathan ferro. i want to go to the auction block where we begin in the united states where demand continues to govern debt. the treasury selling $11 billion in 10 year inflation protected notes. emerging markets doubled down, leading brazil to its first global bond sale under bolsonaro. 4.7% lower than the initial target and five-year credit, glaxosmithkline joining the recent wave of high-grade corporate bond issuers to issue new debts. this price...
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May 12, 2021
05/21
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jonathan: no. we have had almost an eight minute conversation on the market, and we have not talked about the fed! does the fed play into how you think about the equity market going into summer? eric: it does. your point that people like leo brainard, these are stories we will keep paying attention to because there seems to be modest cracks in the foundation that we are not even thinking about talking about rates. as we see conversations increase about inflationary pressure, we cannot bypass the fact that the fed may lose patience. tom: i want to go right to fear 101. this is the reality -- people feel they have not participated in this bull market. they do not own big tech. where do you place fresh capital now if you have missed out and you know you want to get on board but you're scared stiff? eric: two places -- one would be domestic mid-caps, that sit in that middle place between momentum small as well as large cap, which has done very well. for those who want to scale into pieces within the fi
jonathan: no. we have had almost an eight minute conversation on the market, and we have not talked about the fed! does the fed play into how you think about the equity market going into summer? eric: it does. your point that people like leo brainard, these are stories we will keep paying attention to because there seems to be modest cracks in the foundation that we are not even thinking about talking about rates. as we see conversations increase about inflationary pressure, we cannot bypass...
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Jan 7, 2018
01/18
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i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, u.s. payrolls disappoint. wage growth stalls and unemployment sticks at 4.1%. analysts say one week of an unexpected jobs report is unlikely to derail the federal reserve. and economic data in europe looks hot, but inflation calls. we begin with the big issue, the payrolls report. >> it isn't bad, would not overreact to this report. growth in the jobs market is solid. >> disappointing in many ways, .3% increase in wage growth. we could still be on a path to 3%, so that could be a sign of improvement in the job market. wages would be .3%, revisions would be back down to .1%. .2% per month is what we are looking at. if you can get wages going, you can get inflation going, which is what the fed wants to get going. >> i do think you are seeing pretty solid labor markets that are not extremely overheating, but it is a good thing for markets and a good thing for equities. >> this is not a labor market humming along, it is certainly not consistent with needing to raise rates. it pushes the fed's
i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, u.s. payrolls disappoint. wage growth stalls and unemployment sticks at 4.1%. analysts say one week of an unexpected jobs report is unlikely to derail the federal reserve. and economic data in europe looks hot, but inflation calls. we begin with the big issue, the payrolls report. >> it isn't bad, would not overreact to this report. growth in the jobs market is solid. >> disappointing in many...
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Oct 6, 2018
10/18
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BLOOMBERG
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jonathan: yeah. i think the bob: risk in the back end is we could overshoot a bit. we had a flat curve for a long time. the structural bull flattener has been a popular trade for a couple years. as victoria said, we are only now starting to reintroduce term premium and it is still not sufficiently positive, in my opinion. so i can see some overshoot as we unwind some of the longer term, long-held views that real rates and nominal rates can't go higher. they can go higher. we do have a growth and an inflation impulse that's likely to get better before it gets a bit worse. at least the inflation impulse will get better before it gets worse. jonathan: what we see on the screen is 12 months ago on the yield curve compared to where we are now. victoria, what does the picture look like 12 months out? can we do this again? victoria: i don't think we'll do it to the same extent. but yes, i think you will see the curve shift higher. it takes about 18 months for rate changes to flow through to the economy. so
jonathan: yeah. i think the bob: risk in the back end is we could overshoot a bit. we had a flat curve for a long time. the structural bull flattener has been a popular trade for a couple years. as victoria said, we are only now starting to reintroduce term premium and it is still not sufficiently positive, in my opinion. so i can see some overshoot as we unwind some of the longer term, long-held views that real rates and nominal rates can't go higher. they can go higher. we do have a growth...
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45
Sep 13, 2019
09/19
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jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. startsrg "real yield" right now. ♪ coming up, the market music improves. u.s.-china trade tensions often. data looking ok. the consumer is still driving economic activity, whips on a one-way bond market, driving treasuries lower and yields much higher. things looking better than you thought they were. >> what if the market has been acting like early cycle? >> there is no question you are seeing the dynamics shifting. >> we don't see recession coming right away. >> maybe august was that peak here. >> chomped a lot of wood in august, sentiment horrible. >> maybe we are coming out of it. i think the fed needs to confirm that but maybe we have had a mini cycle. >> we are set up perfectly for a rally in risk assets into the fall. if you want the bull market to die, show me the recession. until you can produce it, you have got to take the over. >> no recession, central banks in play, markets outside, going into the fall, trade deal, upside. jonathan: another big week for treasury yields.
jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. startsrg "real yield" right now. ♪ coming up, the market music improves. u.s.-china trade tensions often. data looking ok. the consumer is still driving economic activity, whips on a one-way bond market, driving treasuries lower and yields much higher. things looking better than you thought they were. >> what if the market has been acting like early cycle? >> there is no question you are seeing...